Energy Information Administration predicts rising oil demand, prices
January 15, 2010 Break Bulk Connection
Global oil demand fell in 2009 and 2008, the first time since 1983 that oil demand has fallen for two consecutive years, according to a short-term energy outlook released this week by the US Energy Information Administration. However, the decline bottomed out in mid-2009 and the EIA expects recovery to continue with oil demand growth of 1.1 million barrels per day in 2010 and 1.5 million bbl/d in 2011.
Countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will lead 2010 demand recovery while OECD countries should see some demand growth in 2011, the EIA said. Overall, China is expected to lead world consumption demand growth with estimated increases of more than 0.4 million bbl/d both years.
The EIA expects the benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil price per barrel, which averaged $62/bbl in 2009, to average $80 in 2010 and $84 in 2011. EIA’s forecast assumes U.S. GDP growth of 2 percent in 2010 and 2.7 percent in 2011 and world oil-consumption-weighted growth of 2.5 percent in 2011 and 3.7 percent in 2011.
The EIA also expects annual average natural gas spot prices in the U.S. to increase from $4.06 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in 2009 to $5.36 Mcf in 2010 and $6.12 Mcf in 2011.
Global investments in oil and gas exploration and development, and related heavy-lift and project cargo movement, can be expected to increase as oil and gas prices rise.
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