U.S. Box Imports Plummet 22 Percent
Bill Mongelluzzo Jun 9, 2009 6:28PM GMTThe Journal of Commerce Online - News Story

Slight April gain over March gives weak signal for peak season

Container volumes at U.S. ports edged up in April compared to March, but remained well below the volumes recorded in April 2008, according to the monthly Port Tracker published by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.

The second half of 2009 appears to be trending the same way the first half progressed, with containerized imports creeping up compared to the month before, but down noticeably from the same month last year.

It therefore looks like the back-to-school shopping season this summer, traditionally the second busiest period on retailers' calendars, will be disappointing. Prospects for the holiday shopping season that follows look equally bleak.

These developments are reflected directly in the cargo volumes moving through the eight major U.S. container gateways covered by Port Tracker.

"Retailers are still being cautious with their inventory levels in anticipation of slow sales this summer into the fall," said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation.

Containerized imports in April increased 2 percent over March, but were down 22 percent compared to April 2008, according to Port Tracker. April was the third lowest month since 2004 and marked the 22nd month in a row of year-over-year declines in volume.

Projections call for May to be down 21 percent and June 19 percent from the same months last year. Port Tracker projects that containerized imports in the first half of 2009 will be down 21 percent compared to the first six months of 2008.

Port Tracker projects volumes in the peak summer-fall months through October will be down about 16 to 18 percent compared to peak season 2008.

Logistically, the U.S. port and intermodal transportation networks are operating efficiently and without any disruptions. Ports are congestion-free from vessel to gate. Rail service levels are good and the harbor trucking industry is operating with excess capacity.

On the other hand, all of these transportation industries are struggling with weak revenues and over-capacity.

Introduction of the federal security program known as the Transportation Worker Identification Credential has successfully taken place at all major gateways.

Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bmongelluzzo@joc.com.